Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.042870 1.101431 1.162087 1.229725 1.303185 1.380714 1.468930
2026-02-08 0.932029 1.012842 1.100090 1.201743 1.317506 1.445924 1.600121
2026-02-15 0.869456 0.963429 1.067833 1.193303 1.341174 1.511395 1.724364
2026-02-22 0.827994 0.931961 1.050179 1.195925 1.372709 1.582765 1.855210
2026-03-01 0.783769 0.893175 1.019896 1.179382 1.377450 1.619097 1.942263
2026-03-08 0.739777 0.851557 0.982996 1.151259 1.364391 1.630302 1.995430
2026-03-15 0.709774 0.824814 0.962037 1.140593 1.371128 1.665142 2.079625
2026-03-22 0.695659 0.816388 0.962556 1.156037 1.410961 1.743857 2.226846
2026-03-29 0.676900 0.801077 0.953356 1.157945 1.432347 1.798283 2.343177
2026-04-05 0.664154 0.792545 0.952002 1.169446 1.466385 1.870979 2.489908
2026-04-12 0.643571 0.773095 0.935603 1.159892 1.470708 1.901786 2.576291
2026-04-19 0.632998 0.765981 0.934722 1.170760 1.503311 1.973934 2.729754
2026-04-26 0.609913 0.742303 0.911789 1.151410 1.493506 1.985600 2.792961
2026-05-03 0.585803 0.716554 0.885250 1.126005 1.473783 1.981416 2.830551
2026-05-10 0.569976 0.701176 0.871958 1.118320 1.479045 2.014587 2.931018
2026-05-17 0.558877 0.691662 0.866132 1.120708 1.498906 2.070807 3.074209
2026-05-24 0.542242 0.674146 0.848699 1.105638 1.491650 2.083793 3.143402
2026-05-31 0.522838 0.652324 0.824630 1.080003 1.467047 2.067533 3.159114
2026-06-07 0.509892 0.638942 0.811843 1.070273 1.466255 2.089378 3.244883
2026-06-14 0.505586 0.637237 0.815245 1.084360 1.502881 2.174401 3.454581
2026-06-21 0.497490 0.630020 0.810567 1.086100 1.519926 2.227461 3.608468
2026-06-28 0.492555 0.627030 0.811743 1.096584 1.551276 2.306581 3.821002
2026-07-05 0.481927 0.615753 0.800646 1.087874 1.550896 2.330262 3.923848